Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) anticipates that over half a million Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will either leave Canada or transition to permanent residence (PR) status by the end of this year.
The term NPR includes individuals in Canada on temporary statuses, such as work and study permit holders. It’s important to note that while IRCC has confirmed targets for 2025, future targets may be subject to change and will be finalized by November 1st of the previous year.
Additionally, Canada’s immigration department has shared projections for the number of new NPRs expected to be welcomed over the next three years, as IRCC works toward its objective of maintaining NPR levels at 5% of Canada’s total population.
NPR can also refer to:
- Asylum claimants
- Protected persons
- Dependents of any identified category (including work permit holders, study permit holders, asylum claimants, and protected persons).
What NPR Outflows Does IRCC Expect This Year and Over the Next Three Years?
According to Canada’s Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, IRCC projects that 588,409 Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will leave Canada or transition to permanent residence (PR) status by the end of 2024.
Although the department plans to reduce NPR levels in the coming years, it still anticipates a net increase of 299,216 NPRs by the end of 2024, bringing the expected total to approximately 2.9 million NPRs, which represents 7.1% of Canada’s total population.
Projected NPR Outflows Over the Next Three Years:
Year | Total NPR Outflows | Net Change in NPR Numbers | NPR Population | NPRs as % of Canadian Population |
2025 | 1,262,801 | -445,901 | 2,515,099 | 6.1% |
2026 | 1,104,658 | -445,622 | 2,069,477 | 5.0% |
2027 | 875,179 | 17,439 | 2,086,916 | 5.0% |
Expected NPR Inflows for the Next Three Years
The Annual Report on Immigration for 2024 also outlines anticipated NPR inflows for the next three years, projecting a total of 887,625 new NPRs in Canada by the end of the year.
Projected NPR Inflows Over the Next Three Years:
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Non-permanent Resident (NPR) Measures | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
Total NPR inflows | 816,900 | 659,036 | 892,568 |
NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers | 673,650 | 516,600 | 543,600 |
NPR inflows for contingency reserves | 143,250 | 142,436 | 348,968 |
Number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP) | 285,750 | 128,700 | 155,700 |
Number of new work permit holders through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) | 82,000 | 82,000 | 82,000 |
Number of new study permit holders | 305,900 | 305,900 | 305,900 |
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Work permits issued under the International Mobility Program (IMP) may include various pathways, such as:
Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Program
International Experience Class (IEC) Program
Agreements like CUSMA, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and CETA
Intra-Company Transfer Program
Significant Benefit Work Permit Program
The Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) may encompass streams such as:
High-wage, Low-wage, Agriculture, and In-Home Caregiver
Seasonal Agriculture Worker Program
Global Talent Stream
IRCC’s Actions to Achieve NPR Targets
To address NPR levels, Canada’s immigration department has implemented several measures, including:
Introducing language and field of study requirements for PGWP applicants starting November 1, 2024
Making the international student cap a permanent element of Canada’s immigration system
Increasing wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the TFWP
Limiting eligibility for Spousal Open Work Permits for spouses of international students
Prioritizing an “In-Canada Focus” in the Express Entry system
Temporarily halting Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for low-wage stream applications in regions with a 6% or higher unemployment rate
Ending the COVID-era policy allowing visitor visa holders to apply for job-specific work permits
Concluding flag poling services for PGWP candidates and imposing further restrictions on flag poling at Canadian ports of entry.
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