Statistics Canada's projections indicate that Canada's population could reach 63 million by 2073. Using various scenarios, Statistics Canada estimates that by 2073, Canada's population could range from 47.1 million to 87.2 million. It's important to note that these projections, which consider recent trends and expert opinions, are not predictions but rather potential outcomes. The 63 million projection specifically reflects Statistics Canada's medium-growth scenario (M1).
How will Canada's population grow in the coming years?
Despite the natural aging of its population, Canada is projected to grow by approximately 21 million people over the next 50 years. Immigration has been a significant driver, with Canada's population recently surpassing 41 million less than a year after reaching the 40 million milestone.
By 2073, seniors aged 65 and older could constitute between 21.9% and 32.3% of Canada's total population. Concurrently, the proportion of children (aged 0 to 14 years) is expected to decrease by 2073, as projected by most of Statistics Canada's scenarios, including the M1 scenario which forecasts a population of 63 million.
As a result of these demographic shifts, the average age in Canada is projected to increase to between 42.6 and 50.1 years by 2073, up from 41.6 years in 2023.
Challenges Facing Canada's Population
According to the report, Canada is currently grappling with record-low fertility rates in 2022 and a three-year decline in life expectancy from 2020 to 2022.
Statistics Canada attributes these trends, alongside an aging population, to a projected drop in Canada's annual population growth rate by 0.33% over the next 50 years. This decline is significant, reducing the rate from an average of 1.12% over the past three decades to 0.79% by 2072/2073 under the M1 projections.
These factors create a dual challenge for Canada's population growth. A declining life expectancy reduces the number of older citizens, while a low fertility rate—recorded at 1.33 births per woman in 2022, well below the replacement level of 2.1—hampers the replenishment of the population through domestic births.
Moreover, Canada's aging population places additional strain on social systems, particularly healthcare, as fewer working-age individuals support increased costs through taxation. This dynamic underscores the need for policies that address the demographic shift and promote sustainable population growth and economic stability.
The Vital Role of Immigration
To counter these trends, Canada relies heavily on immigration as a pivotal strategy. Immigration not only accounts for nearly 100% of Canada’s labor force growth but also plays a crucial role in filling critical labor shortages across various sectors. Additionally, it provides Canada with a youthful demographic influx essential for balancing the overall population. Recently, immigration has even contributed to a decrease in the average age of Canada’s population, marking the first such decline in 65 years, from 40.9 years to 40.6 years.
It is important to note that immigration is not a short-term fix. According to Statistics Canada, while the temporary decline in average and median ages due to recent high immigration levels is notable, population aging remains an inevitable trend. Therefore, a consistent flow of new immigrants each year is essential for sustaining Canada's economy, demographic composition, and overall quality of life.
Immigrants themselves benefit significantly from this symbiotic relationship. Whether they are permanent residents or temporary workers, newcomers often experience an improved standard of living in Canada's multicultural and immigrant-welcoming society. Moreover, Statistics Canada data indicates that immigrants typically achieve higher earnings compared to the native-born Canadian population by their mid-twenties, depending on the timing of their arrival in Canada.